Korf Food Products B.V.

Besides all the issues that were already in play, now the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran is also contributing to the current negative sentiment in the market.

Over the past two weeks, the price of Vietnamese pepper has gradually dropped to around VND 135,000/kg (farm grade). This equates to approximately USD 6,450/t FOB for cleaned and sterilised material. With a USD/EUR exchange rate of 1.155, these are attractive prices. However, it should be noted that stocks of SPOT available pepper are limited and have been procured at higher levels. Stockists will therefore only  slowly adjust their prices to current origin levels in an attempt to limit their losses. A trade agreement between the USA and Vietnam is expected to be signed in July. This could be a game changer. The long-term fundamentals remain firm.

The price of cumin seeds has fallen sharply. China has a good crop and is competing with India for conventional grades.

Fennel seed prices are stable, but there is potential for them to increase, as India — accounting for 75% of global production — has a small crop.

Conversely, the Indian cardamom crop is looking promising at around 30,000 mt. In addition, there is still a decent carryover. Prices are easing slowly.

Geopolitical issues continue to affect our business. Different conflicts and constantly changing trade tariffs are disrupting normal trade flows and, in turn, the global logistics system. This leads to sharply higher freight rates, making exporters reluctant to quote prices for future shipments. Usually, the price of commodities is mainly determined by supply and demand and can be predicted to some extent through technical analysis.  However, prevailing sentiment cannot be captured in models. Currently, this negative sentiment is putting pressure on prices.

The price of Vietnamese pepper fell by around 4% to VND 145K over the past weeks. This appears to be a resistance level that has been tested several times in the last 10 months. Each time, the market has found support at this level and resumed its firm trend. Vietnam is negotiating with the US administration regarding tariff levels. Rumours suggest that an agreement will be reached shortly, with little change to previous levels for agricultural products. This could give the market a positive boost.

 The garlic harvest in China has begun and appears to be promising. The acreage is 15% higher than last year, and the yield is also good. China has a substantial carry-over of around 300,000 mt.  In recent weeks, speculators have closed some of their positions at a loss causing the price to fall. It seems they now show renewed interest at the current lower level.

The 'Big Beautiful Bill Act' caused the US Dollar to weaken further, and it now stands at less than 0.88 to the Euro.

Over the past three weeks, black pepper prices have remained stable within a narrow range. Farmers seem happy with the current level, and regular buyers have accepted it and are steadily placing their orders. China remains inactive, and the speculative buying that could boost the market has yet to materialise. The Vietnamese harvest appears to be reasonable, and if the Brazilian harvest is also successful, this could be a quiet year for pepper.

Trade tariffs imposed on China by Mr Trump have caused a sharp drop in Chinese exports to the US. The reduced cargo supply has led carriers to withdraw ships or change routes. This disruption to the global transport system is resulting in increased transit times. These were already longer than before due to problems in the Red Sea. Currently, shipments from Vietnam and China take around eight weeks to reach Europe!

Reduced demand for Chinese products in the USA is also causing prices to fall. Prices for Chinese dried garlic originating in China are currently 10 to 15% lower than in March. Hopefully, demand will pick up and prices will bounce back now that a 'deal' has been reached.

India's chilli crop was good, with stocks around 10% higher than last year.

This has resulted in lower prices, but the availability of IPM goods is just about the same as last year, and prices for EU-approved goods have fallen only slightly.

Apart from the war in Ukraine, the border conflict in Kashmir between India and Pakistan is also flaring up, which does not support the market.

Spice origins are still in shock over Trump's ‘liberation day’ policy. How these import duties work out in the long term is very uncertain. It is not yet clear if the 46% import tariff on Vietnamese goods will also apply to pepper and cassia or if these will be exempted. Nevertheless, the market reacted negatively and pepper prices are now quoted about 7% lower. VND 150,000 seems to be the new resistance level. It will take some time before these lower origin prices translate into significantly lower spot prices. Imports from Brazil are only taxed at 10% and if tariffs remain as they are now we may expect a shift of USA imports from Vietnam in favour of Brazil which will have a positive effect on pepper prices in this country.

Earlier, India reported good harvests for both cumin and turmeric. As a result, prices have eased somewhat. In recent days, there have been some reports of adverse weather conditions and prices firmed a little. Overall, the supply situation appears to be good and we expect the market to move sideways in a narrow range over the coming months.

The Indian onion crop is well underway and it looks to be a normal one. Prices look attractive. In recent weeks, Chinese garlic prices fell about 5%. It seems speculators want to get rid of their goods before the new harvest starts. In addition, the newly imposed US import duties are also negatively affecting the market.

Although the new crop in Vietnam is now well under way, prices remain high. Most pepper farmers have built up a strong financial position over the past year and have improved their storage capacity, allowing them to be more flexible. The price of pepper has been hovering around VND160,000 per kg for weeks. Farmers see no reason to sell below this level. Crop expectations are only around 180,000 m/t and carryover is again lower than in previous years. There has also been little movement on the demand side. In 2024, the USA imported almost 100,000 m/t from Vietnam (!). They are well stocked and in no hurry to buy. China has also been quiet so far, but unlike in 2024 they will need to import this year to meet domestic demand. In this respect, it will be interesting to see how the new crop in Hainan, that starts in June, fares. The island was hit by Hurricane Yagi in September 2024 and we may see some impact from that. Higher prices and financing costs are causing most buyers to buy hand-to-mouth.

Clove prices are stable for now, but may rise. The 2024 Madagascar crop was small and the impact should be felt in Q2. Although the Indonesian crop was good, we noticed that in many cases it did not comply with EU legislation, particularly for cloves coming from Java.

Nutmeg prices have weakened somewhat now that the new crop approaches.

The USD to EURO exchange rate is now at 0.92 (1.08) whereas only 2 months ago we were led to believe by our bank that it was heading for parity! Interesting times we live in...

The black pepper market has been quite volatile in recent weeks. Immediately after the TET holidays we saw the price rise sharply, only to stabilise after a few days at a level of VND 160K, equivalent to USD 8.00/kg for 550 gr/l STST CF Europe. New arrivals are still limited, with farmers preferring to store goods rather than sell on the market. 

The new cumin crop in India starts in 2 weeks. The fall in prices has stopped due to good demand from China. There are also concerns about the size of the crop due to the current high temperatures. In the last few days prices have started to rise again.

Meanwhile, the new turmeric crop has started in India. Prices are flat for now despite good crop expectations. The carryover is much less than last year, so on balance a similar quantity will be available.

Product specifications : We have recently updated our product specifications, changed the layout and added some information. Please inform your QA department about this. For most seeds and herbs, it is not possible to give an allergen-free guarantee. These products are grown in areas where allergens are also common. Always there is a system of crop rotation to avoid soil depletion. However, the level of traces of allergens found is usually very low. In addition, the daily intake of seeds and herbs is very low and an analysis based on WHO and FAO studies shows a negligible risk.

During January, prices of Vietnam pepper moved up a little further.
Normally, pepper prices tend to turn a little softer prior the new crop. This year that did not happen.
Although Vietnam has a carryover stock of around 60,000 m/t, stocks are in strong hands and very little pepper is being offered. Meantime, the new crop has started and we should see more goods become available by the end of February. The general consensus is that prices will remain firm. Possibly we see slightly lower prices during Q2.
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The situation in Vietnam has drastically changed from, say, 5 years ago.
Prices of competing crops have risen sharply, even more so than pepper.
The market situation of coffee is familiar to most of us. Less well known is the impact of durian. This fruit is becoming more and more popular in China.
In Malaysia and Indonesia, consumption is around 3kg per capita. In China, it is still only 0.25kg but increasing quickly. In 2024 China imported over 1.5 million m/t with a value of over $ 8 billion ! Thailand is still the largest exporter but Vietnam is catching up. The price of durian varies from $15 to $75 per kg depending on the variety.

The high prices of these competing crops of pepper are a major contributor to the increasing popularity of intercropping, where farmers grow multiple crops on the same plantation. The share of pepper is decreasing in the process !
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Please find attached our updated MOSHMOAH information sheet.
The most commonly used test method today does not distinguish between essential oil, terpenes and phenols and MOAH often resulting in a false positive. Additional testing is therefore required (a confirmatory test).
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Attached please also find our price-list.
Prices mentioned are strictly subject our final confirmation ! We live in challenging times where trade and exchange rates may fluctuate daily due to all sorts of erratic political decisions and global issues.

This is the last market report of 2024!

Over the past few weeks, we have seen pepper prices slowly continue to rise. Stocks in Vietnam are very limited and in the hands of strong players who are in no hurry to sell. The first few months of 2025 will be exciting. Clearly, not all buyers are adequately hedged. We expect the availability of the new crop to have little impact on prices. There is simply too much demand in the market.

Prices for allspice, nutmeg and cloves are moving sideways at higher levels.

Garlic prices gradually increased during 2024, but now seem to be stable.

Dried onion prices appear to be stable with the Indian new crop starting in February 2025.

Looking at the overall price trend, we can say that prices were generally higher than in previous years due to, among other things:

> International conflicts

> Extreme weather conditions

> Higher prices for competing crops

> Higher energy and freight costs

> A tight labour market and high inflation

> A higher dollar exchange rate.

For the time being, we do not expect this to be much different in 2025.

Having said all this, we would like to thank you for the cooperation and your support during the past year. We wish you a merry Christmas and a happy, healthy, and successful 2025 !

Vietnamese pepper prices rose 5% last week on good demand from the US, Europe and Asia. At the start of this week, sentiment has weakened again. We doubt this will last for long. There is little supply on the market and we still have 2-3 months before the new crop, that is 1-2 months behind!

With the civil war in Syria flaring up, the supply outlook for aniseed, cumin and other commodities needs to be monitored closely.

Finding dried ginger at reasonable prices remains a challenge. The new crop in Nigeria is small again and prices are high for the time being.

Indian cumin and turmeric prices also stay high despite good crops are anticipated. The availability of EU compliant material is limited.

Farmer pepper prices in Vietnam remain somewhat sluggish, hovering around VND140,000/kg. Demand is steady and lacks that little bit extra to boost the market. The new crop may be slightly delayed due to continued rain in the highlands.

The clove market has turned from bearish to bullish as it becomes clearer that the Madagascar crop will be small.

The election of DJ Trump as the new President of the USA will bring some changes. The USD/EUR exchange rate has certainly been boosted and is now 5% higher (!) than at the end of October.

Global trade will change if import tariffs are imposed as said. There will be a completely different approach to global issues such as climate change and emerging conflicts. We can only wait and see how it all plays out and how it affects our business.

Pepper prices were weak in October without falling significantly. Supply from Vietnam remains tight but demand is slow with China remaining on the sidelines. After falling sharply, Brazilian pepper prices have recovered somewhat and are now at parity with Vietnamese prices. We expect the market to move sideways in the coming weeks. Only in case of aggressive Q1 covering can prices move higher.

Origin prices for cloves rose by 5-10% during October. Indonesia has a good crop, but the Madagascar crop will be below normal.

Origin prices for garlic also rose by 10% in October. There is still a large carryover of flakes from previous years. To us it seems unlikely that prices will rise much further.

In recent months there have been several RASFFs on sauces and dips containing higher levels of peanut allergen. The source of this contamination is Indian mustard. We would like to mention that we are not involved in this alert. All our mustard products are of Ukrainian origin.

Freight rates are slowly increasing and some origins are reporting insufficient equipment (containers). We are also seeing longer transshipment times and more delays.

Over the past 2 weeks, prices for black pepper from Vietnam have been a little weak. Vietnamese farms, agents and brokers have been actively selling black pepper. This increase in activity is being driven by the need for liquidity to invest in coffee farming. Coffee prices have risen sharply due to lower yields and rising global demand, making it a more profitable business.

So far, China has largely stayed on the sidelines in 2024, buying only limited amounts of pepper. Some traders cite China's economic slowdown, which is starting to be felt, as a possible reason for this, but a more obvious explanation is that stocks are being used up and not being replenished.

There are several possible scenarios for the coming months 1) Origin prices move sideways within a small range (VND 150,000 +/- 10,000) with a possible dip in early 2025 when Vietnamese new crop becomes available, only to quickly recover to current levels. 2) Origin prices move higher following an actual shortage (with China possibly returning to the market). With Vietnam new crop, prices could fall back to current levels.

The Guatemalan cardamom crop has slowed somewhat and appears to be even smaller than previously thought. On the other hand, the Mexican pimento crop appears to be slightly better than expected and prices are a little lower.

We are also seeing some lower origin prices for cloves. This follows a good crop in Indonesia. It will take until early 2025 for this to be reflected in lower spot prices.

The USD/EUR exchange rate is 2% higher than 2 weeks ago. Slightly lower dollar prices are therefore not or less visible in euro prices.

Over the past 3 weeks, prices for black pepper from Vietnam have moved little. Prices from both Indonesia and Brazil have been slightly lower, which is logical as the new crop there is now taking place. As mentioned in a previous update, the Brazilian crop will be smaller than expected earlier in the year. Extreme weather conditions due to climate change will have a lasting impact on the crop. Peppers also face competition from crops that have similar growing conditions but offer farmers better returns. One such competing crop is coffee. Its production is also under pressure. Researchers have found that rising temperatures could reduce the area suitable for growing coffee by 50 percent. Needless to say, what that would mean for (pepper) prices...

Sourcing EU compliant commodities in India remains a challenge, with prices for IPM cumin and turmeric significantly higher than prices for conventional material. For cumin, this premium can be in excess of USD 1000/t! Some local ‘competitive’ offers should therefore be treated with scepticism.

The dollar is weak against many other currencies, including those of the source countries, due to a sharp reduction in interest rate. European rates are also expected to come down again. This is intended to stimulate the economy. Some key industries are facing tough times.

Black pepper prices have risen by around 10% since our last update. Chinese buyers have returned to the (Vietnam) market after a long absence and this has immediately changed sentiment. In addition, crop expectations for Brazil have been revised further downwards. Under ideal conditions, the crop in southern Brazil (Esperito Santo and Bahia) could easily exceed 100 KMT. Due to abnormal weather conditions, this year's crop is now expected to be only around 65 KMT. The Cambodian crop is also smaller than in previous years. As a result, the market outlook remains good through to the end of 2024 and even into 2025.

Freight rates from the Far East to Europe are slowly coming down. The exchange rate of the Indonesian rupiah to the US dollar strengthened by more than 4% in August, resulting in higher nutmeg prices.

We recently had an IFS audit and passed again with a higher level! Attached our new certificate, kindly pass it on to your QA department.

During the first half of August, Vietnamese pepper prices traded in a tight range close to VND140K/kg. This week we have seen a little more activity and as a result prices have risen by 3%. The market was somewhat subdued with US and European buyers enjoying their summer holidays and Chinese buyers remaining on the sidelines. International traders turned to Indonesia for slightly better offers. The new crop of Brazilian pepper is just around the corner, so the market outlook for the near future is fairly stable, although the fundamentals remain strong.

Initial prices for new crop pimento are at the same high level as last year. The crop in Mexico has only just started and if the crop is good, prices may come down a little. The Guatemalan crop, like that of cardamom, appears to have suffered from the drought earlier in the year.

The new autumn crop of star anise in Vietnam looks good and prices have corrected downwards. However, the first shipments are not expected before late October. Until then, spot prices will remain high.

Extreme weather conditions are causing crop uncertainty around the world. In many cases, farmers can no longer rely on yields that were previously considered normal. This is true of the cloves harvest in Indonesia. Although this year's crop is good, we hear that some farmers, particularly in the Moluccas, are beginning to switch to other, more stable crops.

Over the past week, Vietnamese pepper prices have gradually fallen, in search of a new level of support. Farm gate prices at origin are hovering around VND 145,000 per m/t. So far, China has stayed on the sidelines, buying virtually no pepper from Vietnam. We understand that Chinese importers still have over 40K m/t in their warehouses and are in no hurry to buy. However, at the beginning of 2024, this buffer stock was supposed to be around 100K m/t, which means that it has decreased considerably. At present, the trend is still bearish. New harvests in Brazil and Indonesia have started and sufficient material is available. Slower sales and longer transit times cause a liquidity crunch with exporters. Moreover, banks are increasingly unwilling to finance positions.

Financial markets are quite turbulent. An unexpectedly high inflation rate in the EU has greatly reduced the likelihood of a further rate cut, resulting in a markedly firmer EURO exchange rate. This further contributes to lower prices.

So far in July, pepper prices moved sideways within a narrow range. Buyers and sellers are waiting for news about new harvests in Indonesia and Brazil. Although the crop in Indonesia is expected to be larger than in previous years, it will still not have a major impact on the market.  As for Brazil, the crop has been delayed and good quantities for both Para and Esperito Santo origin are not expected to become available until September. The crop is expected to fall short of previous forecasts.

We understand from India that new plantings of chilli and turmeric have increased from last year. In anticipation prices for turmeric already have come down somewhat.

Cloves prices show some weakness now that new crops become available. Indonesia is expected to have a good crop of around 100K m/t.

Cardamom prices remain extremely high. This year the anticipated Guatemala crop will only be around 20K m/t which is just 50 % of a normal crop. Plantations suffered from the extreme drought and it will plantations take years to recover.

Weather conditions worldwide remain a great cause of concenr. Where some origin countries suffer from heat and drought others are jeopardised by tropical storms and excess rain.

Over the past 2 weeks, pepper prices again have been volatile. First, the price of black pepper in Vietnam fell to around VND 145,000, only to rebound quickly to over VND 160,000 when the market faced good demand. In recent days, the market has been slightly weaker again. Brazil hardly offers any pepper and prices are higher than in Vietnam. We hear that the Esperito Santo harvest will be late and 20-30% smaller than initially expected. Poor weather conditions are to blame.   

The supply of EU-compliant cumin seeds remains problematic. The same goes for other Indian seeds and turmeric.

Prices for most spices are firm. Freight rates from Asia to Europe are rising, further supporting the market.

The European spot market is somewhat slow. Rainy weather and low temperatures are keeping people indoors instead of sitting at the BBQ. Companies serving that market segment are extra affected.

This week, Grenada and other Caribbean islands were hit hard by Hurricane Beryl. The storm is expected to reach Mexico this Friday. Never before has there been a tropical storm of this strength so early in the year. Oceans are the main drivers of hurricanes and many factors are involved in their formation and intensity. As a result of El Nino, sea water temperatures in the Atlantic are (much) higher than normal. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said Beryl "sets an alarming precedent for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season." It is possible that this will affect upcoming crops.

The sharp price increase of pepper continued into June. We saw origin prices peak medio week 24 around VND 175,000 before coming down a little. Prices for VBP now seems kind of stable at levels around VND 160,000 with clear support. This origin level corresponds with a price in USD of around USD 8,150/ton CIF for 550gr/l STST EU compliant. Brazil is quoting above this level with just limited offers. Once the new crop starts here we possibly see more competitive prices. Overall sentiment and fundamentals are unchanged.

New crop garlic prices in China move sideways. The market is supported by stockists buying freshly produced flakes. They still have older crops dehydrated material in the books and don’t want prices to come down.

Weather worldwide remains a source of great concern. 2024 seems to be going the warmest year ever (following 2022 and 2023 … !). Temperatures especially in the Middle East and North India are well above 40 degrees celsius for some time now.

Freight rates for both 20ft and 40ft containers remain extremely high. For pepper coming from Vietnam the freight is around usd 300/t !

During May Vietnam pepper prices rose with a staggering 50%! One could compare the market to a volcanic eruption. For months it has been rumbling and there were signs that something was about to happen. Signs that were ignored by many of us in the hope that an even better buying opportunity would come along. But once the resistance level of VND 100,000 was broken, the way up was wide open. This current strong upward market trend might continue for some time.

Indian IPM Cumin prices are slightly higher following good demand. Syria new crop will start shortly but we understand that crop quality suffered from rains. Many farmers in both India and Syria cultivated cumin instead of other crops. Prices of nigella seeds moved up considerably.

Continued drought in both Central America and Mexico is a cause of concern for the upcoming cardamom and pimento crop. Cardamom origin prices already reacted and moved up further to well above USD 20/kg for MYQ.

Increasing freight rates also cause prices to rise.